AGP Executive Report

Kurultai Election Update: Kazakhstan’s first unicameral parliamentary vote under the new Constitution is over, with turnout hitting 74.19% by 8:00 PM (9.35 million ballots counted), and counting underway after polls closed; Almaty city lagged at 43.23% while Turkestan topped at 92.16% and Kyzylorda reached 90.75%. Constitution in Action: The 145-seat Kurultai is elected entirely via party lists from seven parties, with no minimum turnout threshold for validity. Regional and International Signals: Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov congratulated Tokayev, while Italian observers said the shift to a single chamber could make political change easier to implement. Tokayev’s Next Steps: After voting, Tokayev said a vice president is expected to be appointed within 7–10 days and that the government will resign after the election. Diplomacy Watch: Kazakhstan-EU ties were highlighted in talks with EU leadership, with transport and logistics stressed.

Kurultai Elections Begin: Kazakhstan opened more than 10,400 polling stations Sunday for its first-ever vote for the new unicameral parliament, the Kurultai, with voting running 7:00 a.m.–8:00 p.m. local time and overseas ballots cast at 79 sites in 61 countries; the Central Election Commission reported 17.96% turnout by 10:00, with Almaty city notably lowest at 9.96%. Constitutional Reset: The election is the first under Kazakhstan’s new constitution that replaced the bicameral system with a 145-seat Kurultai elected via party lists; seven parties are competing and must clear a 5% threshold. What’s at Stake: International observers total 777 from 42 countries and 13 organizations, while analysts and critics say the vote is set to further consolidate President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s power. Sports Spotlight: Kazakh wrestlers won medals at the World Qazaq Kuresi Championship in Baku, adding to Kazakhstan’s growing presence in international events.

Kurultai Election Prep: Kazakhstan’s Central Election Commission says polling stations for the Aug. 23 Kurultai vote are fully ready, with accessibility corners, guarded ballots, voter invitations, and thousands of training seminars for commission members. Political Climate: President Tokayev urged citizens—especially youth—to vote, framing the election as part of broader reforms aimed at modernization amid geopolitical uncertainty. US Legal Shock With Kazakhstan on List: A US federal judge struck down a Trump-era policy suspending immigrant visas for nationals of 75 countries, including Kazakhstan, calling it “patently unlawful.” Economy Boost: S&P upgraded Kazakhstan’s sovereign credit ratings to BBB/A-2 with a stable outlook, citing resilient growth prospects and strong external and fiscal buffers. Energy & Water Push: Kazakhstan reported record water-sector investment of 677 billion tenge and said renewable power has grown to 3.8 GW+ capacity, with plans to add more projects in 2026. Cross-Border Trade: Horgos on the China-Kazakhstan border is seeing a summer rush, with daily visitors topping 30,000 and visa-free entry plus duty-free purchase limits driving e-commerce activity. Sports Spotlight: Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina withdrew from Cincinnati with an ankle injury, while Kazakhstan’s women’s judo saw Supygalieva win historic gold at a world championship.

Qurultay Election Countdown: Kazakhstan is entering a “day of silence” ahead of the first elections to the new unicameral Qurultay on Aug 23, with campaigning banned from Aug 22 and strict limits on media and social posts, plus fines for violations. Diplomacy & Trade: Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry says talks in Astana between Minister Yermek Kosherbayev and Azerbaijan’s newly appointed ambassador focused on strengthening the Kazakh-Azerbaijani strategic partnership and alliance, including expanding non-resource exports and boosting the Trans-Caspian transport route. Uranium Deal Watch: Kazatomprom says it has agreed uranium supply contracts with Russia’s Uranium One Group and China’s SNURDC, pending shareholder approval later this year. Culture Abroad: Kazakhstan will showcase cultural heritage at the Smithsonian Folklife Festival 2027, with preparations discussed with Smithsonian partners. Weather Alert: Kazhydromet warns of heavy rain, dust storms, strong winds, and extreme fire danger across multiple regions, with heat up to 38°C in parts of the west and south. Sports (Kazakhstan in focus): Iga Swiatek advanced at Cincinnati after Elena Rybakina retired with an injury, raising fitness concerns ahead of the US Open.

Kurultay Countdown: President Tokayev calls Sunday’s first elections to the new unicameral Qurultay a “historic event,” urging citizens—especially youth—to vote as Kazakhstan pushes modernization amid tough global challenges. Election Logistics: The CEC says polling stations are ready nationwide, with 107 opening early abroad and at least 79 overseas sites voting ahead; voting starts 7:00am Aug. 23 (some at 6:00am). International Watch: Kazakhstan hosts election observers from the OTS and TURKPA, while Moldova’s CEC delegation discusses electoral process modernization and cooperation. Foreign Policy Update: Tokayev approved amendments to Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy Concept to align it with the Kurultay era and remove remaining Nazarbayev-era references. Education & Research Push: Kazakhstan plans to double PhD stipends over the next 3–4 years and expand AI education from schools to universities, including an AI university opening Sept. 1. Energy & Industry: Kazatomprom signed uranium supply deals with Russia and China; meanwhile, the government projects moving from electricity deficit to sustained surplus by 2029.

Sports Spotlight: Elena Rybakina’s Cincinnati Open run ended abruptly as she retired with a left ankle injury in her quarterfinal against Iga Swiatek, dashing her chance to reclaim the world No. 1 spot ahead of the US Open. Tennis Update: Swiatek advanced to the semis and will face Jessica Pegula, who beat Amanda Anisimova in a tight three-set match. Aviation & Trade: Cathay Pacific will launch the first direct Almaty–Hong Kong flights on Jan. 9, 2027, three times a week, boosting both passenger connections and cargo capacity. AI & Economy: Kazakhstan is pushing AI deeper into its modernization plan—building computing capacity, skills, startups, and Kazakh-language tech—aiming to move beyond adoption toward real capability. Media Freedom: Rights groups say Kazakhstani journalist Gulnara Bazhkenova’s sentencing reflects a wider crackdown on independent media ahead of parliamentary elections. Cybersecurity: A China-linked “SilkParasite” malware campaign reportedly targeted government bodies across Central Asia, including Kazakhstan.

Power & Grid Stability: Temporary outages hit Almaty again, with disruptions reported in Almaly district (4:20 p.m.) and later around Seifullin and nearby streets (6:10 p.m.), after a major blackout on Aug. 14 that also affected water pressure. Electricity Planning: Kazakhstan says it’s on track to fully cover domestic demand by Q1 2027, with a planned surplus of about 1.3 billion kWh, while KEGOC and a special commission investigate the Central Asia blackout chain. Renewables Forecasting: The Energy Ministry says Samruk-Energy will launch an AI system by end-2026 to forecast renewable generation and boost accuracy to 80%, aiming to cut losses from forecast gaps. Water Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s ambassador to China pushed for coordinated water action, backing an SCO water study center in Kazakhstan and a UN-backed international water organization. Politics & Media Freedom: Kazakhstan’s court sentenced KazTAG editor-in-chief Amir Kasenov and CEO Aset Matayev to restricted liberty and banned them from journalism for five years, drawing criticism ahead of the Aug. 23 Kurultai election. Transport & Connectivity: Cathay Pacific will start direct Hong Kong–Almaty flights on Jan. 9, 2027, three times a week. Wildlife Update: A tigress named Ümit is adapting well after release, with monitoring confirming independent hunts including a wolf and wild boar. Sports: Kazakhstan’s wrestling team will compete across all weight categories at the Baku Qazaq Kuresi World Championships, while Kazakhstan’s chess players and taekwondo athletes continue to pick up medals abroad.

Aviation & Connectivity: Cathay Pacific will launch the first non-stop Hong Kong–Almaty passenger route in January, with three weekly flights starting Jan 9. Energy Security: Kazakhstan plans to add 845 MW of new power capacity in 2027, aiming to cover demand by early 2027 and pushing renewables alongside gas. Education & Health Infrastructure: Kazakhstan says it has built 217 schools and 655 rural healthcare facilities, expanding access for millions in remote areas. Sports & National Teams: Kazakhstan named its squad for the 2026 UEFA Nations League, with matches starting Sept 26, and Kazakhstan also tested domestic UAVs and UGVs at SHAIQAS-2026. Local Science: Researchers mapped 3D ground deformation across Almaty using satellite data, linking key patterns to the Central Almaty Fault. Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and the UN Volunteers discussed deepening cooperation, while Kazakhstan’s foreign policy and citizen protection overseas remain in focus. International Spotlight: Kazakhstan’s Qurultay election campaign enters final debates ahead of Aug 23 voting.

Education Rules: Kazakhstan will bar pupils from using smartphones during lessons, with exceptions only when required by the curriculum; phones may be used during breaks under school-specific rules. Energy & Regional Stability: A blame game continues after a major Central Asia blackout left parts of Kazakhstan and neighboring countries without power, with officials pointing to failures in the shared grid and generator shutdowns. Cybersecurity: A China-nexus espionage campaign dubbed “SilkParasite” is targeting Central Asian government bodies with multiple remote-access malware tools, using tailored phishing lures. Elections & Media Freedom: Kazakhstan’s Kurultai election draws 777 foreign observers from 42 countries; meanwhile, journalist Gulnara Bazhkenova was sentenced to eight years in a crackdown ahead of the Aug. 23 vote. Economy & Industry: Kazakhstan’s Atyrau Oil Refinery plans to raise crude processing capacity to 6.1mn tons annually, while a new Zhalpak uranium mine complex is set to produce 500 tons of uranium per year. Diplomacy & Trade: Kazakhstan and Qatar discussed expanding private-sector cooperation and business missions; Moldova’s ambassador also presented credentials to President Tokayev.

Tenge & Debt Markets: Kazakhstan’s exports climbed to $40.3B in H1 2026 (+8.6% y/y), with copper and copper products leading gains, while trade with Türkiye surged (+94.3%) and imports rose to $31.5B (+5.4%). Road Infrastructure: Kazakhstan is pushing to modernize road checkpoints and prepare highways for autumn-winter maintenance, with agencies told to fix issues fast and meet deadlines. Independent Press Under Pressure: Almaty’s Bostandyk District Court sentenced Orda.kz ex-editor-in-chief Gulnara Bazhkenova to eight years in prison, citing illegal entrepreneurship, embezzlement and false information; she denies wrongdoing and faces a journalistic activity ban. Sports—Local & Regional: Kairat Almaty hosts Anderlecht in the Europa League playoff first leg, while Kazakhstan’s Kalmagambetov won gold at the 2026 U20 World Championships; South Korea’s U-18 team beat Japan 67-64 after earlier wins over Kazakhstan. EU Football Funding: UEFA allocated €7.754M to Kazakhstan’s eligible Premier League clubs for 2025, supporting training systems and youth football.

AI & Education: Kazakhstan is set to open its first AI university in Astana on September 1, with plans for about 600 students, while AI tools roll out from school level to universities to build a longer talent pipeline. Elections & Oversight: Kazakhstan’s Qurultay vote is drawing international attention, with foreign observers from 42 countries accredited and CIS monitors saying parties have equal campaign conditions, including active TV debates and online outreach. Infrastructure Spending: More than KZT617.7 billion from recovered assets is already approved for 500+ regional projects, including water supply, healthcare upgrades, transport work and new education and sports facilities. Business & Tech in Almaty: Astel says its Freedom Cloud Almaty data centre will open in June 2027, creating 45 jobs, as Kazakhstan pushes data-centre growth. Regional Economy: Trade between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan topped $206 million in Jan–Jun, and the Saryarka SEZ expansion aims to attract about KZT90 billion for new tourism and industrial subzones in Karaganda region.

Kurultai Election: Kazakhstan will hold its first parliamentary elections on August 23 under the new Constitution, choosing all 145 Kurultai seats from seven registered party lists in a single nationwide constituency. Agriculture Funding: The government says concessional programs Ken Dala and Ken Dala 2 are backing spring work and harvesting, with about 657.7 bn tenge already disbursed to 5,600 producers across 7.7 million hectares. School Year Prep: Around 4 million children will start the 2026-27 academic year on September 1, with plans to add 101 schools and 59,300 new places. Trade & Logistics: SolitAir launched its first charter cargo route from Dubai to Bishkek, extending its Central Asia footprint that already includes Kazakhstan. Elections Pulse: Polling during the campaign shows voter readiness staying high, with intention to vote ranging roughly from 70% to 76% and fewer undecided voters than earlier. Sports Spotlight: Elena Rybakina advanced at the Cincinnati Masters after a rain-hit, two-hour-plus win over Magdalena Frech.

Economy & Investment: Kazakhstan’s fixed capital investment rose 7.7% in the first seven months, with the biggest jumps in Ulytau (+94.4%), Zhambyl (+56.4%) and Turkistan (+37.5%), while declines hit Zhetysu (-24.5%) and Shymkent (-14%). Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Slovenia reaffirmed plans for closer partnership, including stronger inter-parliamentary dialogue and trade ties. Weather Watch: Scattered rain, thunderstorms, strong winds and possible hail are expected, with the south staying mostly dry and hot; temperatures may swing sharply across regions. Back to School: Over 380,000 children are set to start the new academic year, with first-graders enrollment continuing through Aug. 31 via eGov.kz and schools. Nuclear Sector: Kazakhstan signed a memorandum to boost industrial cooperation and localization in the nuclear industry, linking government, business and industry groups. Energy Exports: Kazakhstan-linked CPC crude exports face new Black Sea risks after a Greek-managed tanker was attacked following loading near Novorossiysk. Politics: Kazakhstan’s Kurultai election is set for Aug. 23, with OSCE observers expected to monitor the process. Sports (Local Interest): Kazakhstan’s Anna Danilina and Aleksandra Krunić advanced in Cincinnati doubles, while Kazakhstan’s badminton player Dmitriy Panarin faced a tough opening match at the World Championships.

Central Asia Power Dispute: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan still disagree on what sparked the Aug. 14 blackout, with KEGOC pointing to Toktogul hydrogenerator disconnections while Kyrgyz grid operators cite a different high-voltage line event. Energy & Industry: Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGaz and a Croatian venture are setting up a joint venture to explore the Shygys hydrocarbon block in Aktobe region, using reinterpreted 2D seismic data and planning new seismic lines plus an exploration well. Politics: Kazakhstan is preparing for its first Kurultai elections on Aug. 23, replacing the old bicameral parliament with a 145-deputy unicameral system under the 2026 constitution. Weather Watch: Rain, thunderstorms, and dust storms are expected across Kazakhstan, with hot conditions in Almaty/Zhetysu up to +36°C. Culture & Sports: Burabay’s short film festival awarded a French animated film and a British screenplay, while Kazakhstan’s Viktor Druzin won bronze at the junior artistic swimming worlds. Global Tech Pressure: The US plans to tell countries, including Kazakhstan, to pick sides in the AI race with China or face exclusion from a US-led coalition.

US–China AI Pressure: The US plans to tell dozens of countries they must choose sides in the AI race, warning that joining China’s competing framework could mean exclusion from a US-led AI coalition; Kazakhstan is named as a key minerals supplier that has also aligned with China’s track. Central Asia Energy Shock: Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy says recent power outages across the region were triggered by failures in the unified Central Asian energy system, with Toktogul HPP cited in explanations. Ukraine Drone War Hits Russia Logistics: Ukraine launched a major drone assault, with Russia reporting 800+ drones shot down and fires at Wildberries warehouses in the Moscow region; Wildberries says it will expand warehousing in Kazakhstan. Archaeology & Heritage: Turkic-world researchers agreed to build a unified digital database of archaeological heritage, with Kazakhstan among participating countries. Health & Trade Links: Lilavati Hospital plans an international expansion into Kazakhstan via a super-speciality outpatient department, aiming to bring specialist care closer to Central Asia. Sports: Kazakhstan’s Yasmina Islamova and Aldiyar Ramazanov won silver at the World Aquatics Junior Artistic Swimming Championships in Budapest.

Golden Horde Scholarship: Historians from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tatarstan discussed how Golden Horde heritage is reshaping modern identities and Kazakh clan links. Archaeology in Kazakhstan: New digs across Zhambyl, Turkistan and Pavlodar found 11th–12th century mud-brick structures, a mosque, paved streets and artifacts, including a well-preserved Kimak-Kipchak mobile dwelling. AI Geopolitics: The US plans to pressure dozens of countries to choose between Washington’s Pax Silica and China’s AI framework, with Kazakhstan named among those in the mix. Central Asia Power Shock: A major blackout hit Almaty and other Central Asian cities; Kazakhstan’s energy ministry blamed a sudden change in electricity flow from the regional grid. Cash Ruble Fees: Banks in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus raised fees for depositing cash Russian rubles, in some cases up to 10–20%. Sports (Almaty angle): Kazakhstan’s Yasmina Islamova and Aldiyar Ramazanov won silver in junior artistic swimming at the World Aquatics Championships. Medical Tourism: Lilavati Hospital plans its first overseas centre in Kazakhstan to expand oncology and other specialist care for international patients.